Another bullwhip? Is your supply chain ready for disruptions caused by tariff uncertainty?

This time, it’s not a pandemic — it’s politics

Unlike the last crisis, today’s disruption is not being driven by a virus, but by political and trade uncertainty. Confusing signals from the Trump administration on tariffs, trade agreements, and sanctions are once again destabilizing global supply networks.

Sudden tariff announcements, contradictory messaging, and rising protectionist rhetoric are spreading uncertainty across key industries. Europe is already reacting:

• The European Union is preparing targeted tariffs on American goods, including technology, automotive, and agricultural products.
• Germany, Europe's industrial powerhouse, is particularly exposed with over €60 billion in exports to the U.S. at risk.
• France and Italy are actively diversifying suppliers for critical inputs such as electronics and pharmaceuticals.
• The Netherlands and Belgium, major European logistics hubs, are experiencing container backlogs as trade patterns shift.

Industries under pressure

Several sectors are already feeling the strain:

• Automotive: German, French, and Italian OEMs, heavily dependent on transatlantic supply chains, face higher input costs and delays.
• Pharmaceuticals: 80% of Europe’s active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are sourced from outside the EU, making the sector highly vulnerable to tariff swings and supply chain shocks.
• Agriculture & Food Processing: European producers are facing both new export hurdles and rising costs for imported feed, fertilizers, and packaging materials.

Transport & logistics: bottlenecks are back

Disruption is clearly visible across transport and logistics:

• Freight rates on the Asia–Europe route have risen 15% since January 2025 (Drewry Index).
• Major European ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg report congestion levels up by 20–25% due to erratic shipment patterns.
• Labour shortages in the logistics sector are worsening:
  • Germany and the UK report a shortage of 100,000+ truck drivers.
  • Warehouse labour costs in France and Benelux are up 12% year-on-year.
• Air freight capacity remains tight, with rates up 17% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The cost of inaction is growing

Without action, the risks are clear:

• Delayed production and missed delivery deadlines
• Rising logistics costs eroding margins
• Strained supplier relationships and increased operational risks
• Inventory bottlenecks or costly overstocks
• Strategic market share losses to more agile competitors

The companies that thrive in this new world will not simply react — they will anticipate, adapt, and act.

Anticipation is key

The winners in this new environment are those who anticipate, not those who react. At Moore, we help businesses turn disruption into opportunity by:

• Stress-testing your supply chain against multiple tariff and trade war scenarios
• Building agile, multi-source supplier strategies to maintain flow and quality
• Designing dynamic transportation solutions to control costs amid volatility
• Implementing workforce strategies to mitigate labor shortages in logistics hubs
• Building resilience and visibility across your entire value chain

Waiting is not a strategy. Preparedness is.  Need a sparring partner to strengthen your supply chain strategy? Feel free to contact us.